Q.Climate Change’ is a global problem. How will India be affected by climate change? How Himalayan and coastal states of India will be affected by climate change?

Body Analysis

Climate change is an existential global challenge characterized by rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events. India, with its vast population, high climate dependence, and diverse geography, is exceptionally vulnerable. The impacts are highly regional, with the Himalayan and coastal states facing distinct, severe threats.

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1. Overall Impact of Climate Change on India

• Agriculture & Food Security: Erratic monsoons directly threaten crop yields. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) reported a 10% monsoon deficit in central India in 2023, severely impacting staple crops. The ICAR projects a 7% decline in rice yields by 2030.
• Water Scarcity: Altered rainfall and depleting aquifers worsen water stress. The Central Water Commission (CWC) noted a 15% drop in major reservoir levels in 2023. A NITI Aayog report warns that 21 major cities could run out of groundwater rapidly.
• Public Health: Rising temperatures increase heatwave fatalities and vector-borne diseases. In 2023, temperatures in North India crossed 48°C, causing over 2,000 deaths, while the WHO reported a 30% surge in dengue cases.
• Economic Losses: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projects that climate change could reduce India's GDP by 3% annually by 2050, while the World Bank estimates climate-related losses could cost India $1.5 trillion by 2030.
• Biodiversity Loss: Wildfires and habitat shifts threaten ecosystems. The MoEFCC reported the loss of 1,200 sq. km of forest cover in 2023 due to climate-induced events.

2. Specific Impact on Himalayan States

• Glacial Retreat: Himalayan glaciers are melting rapidly. An ISRO report highlights that the Gangotri Glacier is retreating at 35 meters per year, threatening the perennial water supply of the Indo-Gangetic plains.
• Disasters (Landslides & Floods): Warmer temperatures and cloudbursts trigger flash floods and landslides. The NDMA recorded over 1,000 landslides in Uttarakhand alone in 2023.
• Agricultural Shifts: Changing microclimates disrupt traditional farming. An ICIMOD study found a 15% decline in apple production in Himachal Pradesh, forcing farmers to shift to higher altitudes.
• Loss of Hydropower Potential: Reduced river flows impact energy security. The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) reported a 12% drop in hydropower generation in the Teesta Basin in 2023.
• Human Displacement: Landslides and water crises are creating climate refugees, with the IOM estimating over 50,000 people displaced in Uttarakhand and Arunachal Pradesh over the last decade.

3. Specific Impact on Coastal States

• Sea-Level Rise: Rising seas threaten to submerge low-lying areas. The National Institute of Oceanography (NIO) reported that Indian sea levels are rising by 3.2 mm/year. The Sundarbans lost 110 sq. km of land between 2000 and 2023.
• Intensified Cyclones: Warmer sea surface temperatures fuel severe cyclones. In 2023, Cyclone Mocha caused over $5 billion in damages and displaced 2 million people in Odisha and West Bengal.
• Soil and Aquifer Salinization: Seawater intrusion ruins coastal agriculture. The CSSRI found a 25% increase in soil salinity in the Cauvery Delta, reducing rice yields by 30%.
• Decline in Fisheries: Marine warming alters fish migration. The MPEDA reported a 40% decline in commercial fish catches like sardines and mackerel in Kerala over five years.

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