Q.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted a global sea level rise of about one metre by AD 2100. What would be its impact in India and the other countries in the Indian Ocean region?

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Impact on India

• Inundation of Coastal Cities: Major economic hubs and densely populated coastal cities like Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, and Kochi face severe risks of permanent or frequent tidal flooding. Critical infrastructure, including ports, airports, and coastal roads, could be submerged.
• Threat to Fragile Ecosystems: The Sundarbans in West Bengal, the world's largest mangrove forest, is highly vulnerable. A one-meter rise would submerge vast areas, destroying the habitat of the Bengal Tiger and eliminating natural coastal defense barriers.
• Agricultural Disruption and Soil Salinization: Rising sea levels will push saltwater deep into coastal aquifers and agricultural fields. This salinization of groundwater and soil will devastate crop yields, particularly in fertile deltaic regions like the Mahanadi, Godavari, Krishna, and Kaveri deltas, threatening food security.
• Displacement and Climate Refugees: Millions of people living in low-lying coastal areas will face displacement. This mass migration will place immense socio-economic stress on inland urban centers, creating a crisis of climate refugees.
• Economic Losses in Fisheries and Tourism: Coastal tourism and marine fisheries, which support millions of livelihoods along India's 7,500 km coastline, will suffer massive disruptions due to habitat loss and infrastructure damage.

Impact on Other Indian Ocean Countries

• Existential Threat to Small Island Nations: Low-lying island nations like the Maldives face complete submergence, as most of their land lies less than 1.5 meters above current sea levels. This poses an existential threat to their sovereignty and culture.
• Devastation in Bangladesh: Bangladesh, with its vast low-lying deltaic geography, is exceptionally vulnerable. A one-meter rise could submerge up to 17% of its land area, displacing over 20 million people and destroying vital rice-growing regions.
• Impact on East African Coastal States: Countries like Mozambique, Tanzania, and Madagascar will experience increased coastal erosion, destruction of coral reefs, and vulnerability to extreme weather events like cyclones, worsening poverty and food insecurity.
• Disruption of Regional Trade and Ports: Major ports across the Indian Ocean region, such as Colombo (Sri Lanka) and Singapore, will require massive capital investments to upgrade defenses and adapt to rising sea levels, disrupting regional supply chains.